Minimizing Population Health Loss in Times of Scarce Surgical Capacity During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Crisis and Beyond: A Modeling Study.

OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 has put unprecedented pressure on healthcare systems worldwide, leading to a reduction of the available healthcare capacity. Our objective was to develop a decision model to estimate the impact of postponing semielective surgical procedures on health, to support prioritization of care from a utilitarian perspective. METHODS: A cohort state-transition model was developed and applied to 43 semielective nonpediatric surgical procedures commonly performed in academic hospitals. Scenarios of delaying surgery from 2 weeks were compared with delaying up to 1 year and no surgery at all. Model parameters were based on registries, scientific literature, and the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease study. For each surgical procedure, the model estimated the average expected disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per month of delay. RESULTS: Given the best available evidence, the 2 surgical procedures associated with most DALYs owing to delay were bypass surgery for Fontaine III/IV peripheral arterial disease (0.23 DALY/month, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.13-0.36) and transaortic valve implantation (0.15 DALY/month, 95% CI: 0.09-0.24). The 2 surgical procedures with the least DALYs were placing a shunt for dialysis (0.01, 95% CI: 0.005-0.01) and thyroid carcinoma resection (0.01, 95% CI: 0.01-0.02). CONCLUSION: Expected health loss owing to surgical delay can be objectively calculated with our decision model based on best available evidence, which can guide prioritization of surgical procedures to minimize population health loss in times of scarcity. The model results should be placed in the context of different ethical perspectives and combined with capacity management tools to facilitate large-scale implementation.

The potential effectiveness of the WHO International Health Regulations capacity requirements on control of the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional study of 114 countries.

OBJECTIVES: We examined if the WHO International Health Regulations (IHR) capacities were associated with better COVID-19 pandemic control. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Population-based study of 114 countries. PARTICIPANTS: General population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: For each country, we extracted: (1) the maximum rate of COVID-19 incidence increase per 100,000 population over any 5-day moving average period since the first 100 confirmed cases; (2) the maximum 14-day cumulative incidence rate since the first case; (3) the incidence and mortality within 30 days since the first case and first COVID-19-related death, respectively. We retrieved the 13 country-specific International Health Regulations capacities and constructed linear regression models to examine whether these capacities were associated with COVID-19 incidence and mortality, controlling for the Human Development Index, Gross Domestic Product, the population density, the Global Health Security index, prior exposure to SARS/MERS and Stringency Index. RESULTS: Countries with higher International Health Regulations score were significantly more likely to have lower incidence (ß coefficient -24, 95% CI -35 to -13) and mortality (ß coefficient -1.7, 95% CI -2.5 to -1.0) per 100,000 population within 30 days since the first COVID-19 diagnosis. A similar association was found for the other incidence outcomes. Analysis using different regression models controlling for various confounders showed a similarly significant association. CONCLUSIONS: The International Health Regulations score was significantly associated with reduction in rate of incidence and mortality of COVID-19. These findings inform design of pandemic control strategies, and validated the International Health Regulations capacities as important metrics for countries that warrant evaluation and improvement of their health security capabilities.

Ramping Up a Pediatric Hospital Medicine Advanced Practice Provider Team Rapidly.

Pediatric Hospital Medicine (PHM) is a growing subspecialty with a broad scope. The Covid-19 pandemic demands flexible staffing models. Advanced practice providers (APPs) can be a valuable addition to hospital medicine teams, although there is no established training program for APPs within PHM. The authors' purpose is to describe how one institution rapidly established a PHM APP team by collaborating with experienced APPs working in other areas of the hospital. This APP team cared for 16% of the average daily census during the pilot period with no significant difference in length of stay compared to traditional teams.

Vancouver Convention Health Centre (COVID-19 Response): Planning, implementation, and four lessons learned.

The Vancouver Convention Health Centre (VCHC) was rapidly set up as a part of the COVID-19 response in Brit-ish Columbia in order to create surge hospital capacity bed space. Multiple field hospitals were set up across the country in preparation for a possible surge and the VCHC utilized a non-traditional health care space and overlaid it with medical infrastructure. Maximum flexibility was required in planning for multiple patient populations and a novel four-box concept to plan for the requirements of the respective possible populations was developed. Key difficulties that needed to be overcome in planning COVID-19 medical care delivery in a non-traditional space included oxygen delivery, unknown future patient populations, and staffing. A clear recommendation can also now be made that healthcare provision should be considered during the design and build of new recreational or convention facilities in all communities.

Estimated surge in hospital and intensive care admission because of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: In pandemics, local hospitals need to anticipate a surge in health care needs. We examined the modelled surge because of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that was used to inform the early hospital-level response against cases as they transpired. METHODS: To estimate hospital-level surge in March and April 2020, we simulated a range of scenarios of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada, using the best available data at the time. We applied outputs to hospital-specific data to estimate surge over 6 weeks at 2 hospitals (St. Michael's Hospital and St. Joseph's Health Centre). We examined multiple scenarios, wherein the default (R0 = 2.4) resembled the early trajectory (to Mar. 25, 2020), and compared the default model projections with observed COVID-19 admissions in each hospital from Mar. 25 to May 6, 2020. RESULTS: For the hospitals to remain below non-ICU bed capacity, the default pessimistic scenario required a reduction in non-COVID-19 inpatient care by 38% and 28%, respectively, with St. Michael's Hospital requiring 40 new ICU beds and St. Joseph's Health Centre reducing its ICU beds for non-COVID-19 care by 6%. The absolute difference between default-projected and observed census of inpatients with COVID-19 at each hospital was less than 20 from Mar. 25 to Apr. 11; projected and observed cases diverged widely thereafter. Uncertainty in local epidemiological features was more influential than uncertainty in clinical severity. INTERPRETATION: Scenario-based analyses were reliable in estimating short-term cases, but would require frequent re-analyses. Distribution of the city's surge was expected to vary across hospitals, and community-level strategies were key to mitigating each hospital's surge.

COVID-19 in obstetrics 2020: the experience at a New York City medical center.

The global spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the early months of 2020 was rapid and exposed vulnerabilities in health systems throughout the world. Obstetric SARS-CoV-2 disease was discovered to be largely asymptomatic carriage but included a small rate of severe disease with rapid decompensation in otherwise healthy women. Higher rates of hospitalization, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission and intubation, along with higher infection rates in minority and disadvantaged populations have been documented across regions. The operational gymnastics that occurred daily during the Covid-19 emergency needed to be translated to the obstetrics realm, both inpatient and ambulatory. Resources for adaptation to the public health crisis included workforce flexibility, frequent communication of operational and protocol changes for evaluation and management, and application of innovative ideas to meet the demand.

Evolution of indicators and service capacity at the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Northeast Brazil, 2020. / Evolução de indicadores e capacidade de atendimento no início da epidemia de COVID-19 no Nordeste do Brasil, 2020.

OBJECTIVE: to describe the evolution of indicators and capacity for health care in the initial phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in the Northeast region of Brazil. METHODS: this was a descriptive study based on COVID-19 case epidemiological bulletins released by the Ministry of Health up until April 1st, 2020. The incidence rate, lethality and number of cumulative daily cases were calculated. RESULTS: 1,005 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were identified, most of them in Ceará and Bahia states. The incidence rate was 1.8/100,000 inhabitants and lethality was 2.7%. Ceará was the state with the highest number of cases, with 29.6 new cases per day on average. Average intensive care bed availability in the Northeast region (1.04/10,000 inhab.) was below the national average (2.8/10,000 inhab.). CONCLUSION: the indicators suggest that COVID-19 impact is heterogeneous and signal the challenges for health systems in the Northeast Region.

Ethical allocation of scarce health care resources in the context of the COVID-19 crisis. / Asignación ética de recursos sanitarios escasos en el contexto de crisis por COVID-19.

The current COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to overwhelm the capacity of hospitals and Intensive Care Units in Chile and Latin America. Thus local authorities have an ethical obligation to be prepared by implementing pertinent measures to prevent a situation of rationing of scarce healthcare resources, and by defining ethically acceptable and socially legitimate criteria for the allocation of these resources. This paper responds to recent ethical guidelines issued by a Chilean academic institution and discusses the main moral principles for the ethical foundations of criteria for rationing during the present crisis. It argues that under exceptional circumstances such as the current pandemic, the traditional patient-centered morality of medicine needs to be balanced with ethical principles formulated from a public health perspective, including the principles of social utility, social justice and equity, among others. The paper concludes with some recommendations regarding how to reach an agreement about rationing criteria and about their implementation in clinical practice.

La actual pandemia por COVID-19 tiene el potencial de sobrepasar la capacidad de hospitales y unidades de cuidados intensivos en Chile y América Latina. Por lo tanto, las autoridades locales tienen la obligación ética de estar preparadas mediante la implementación de medidas tendientes a evitar una situación de racionamiento de recursos sanitarios escasos, y a través de la definición de criterios éticamente aceptables y socialmente legítimos para la asignación de estos recursos. Este artículo presenta una respuesta a orientaciones éticas recientes emitidas por una institución académica chilena y analiza los principios éticos relevantes para la fundamentación ética de criterios de racionamiento. Se argumenta que, frente a circunstancias excepcionales como la actual pandemia, la moral centrada en el paciente de la medicina tradicional necesita ser ponderada con principios éticos formulados desde una perspectiva de salud pública, incluyendo los principios de utilidad social, justicia social y equidad, entre otros. Se concluye con algunas recomendaciones sobre cómo llegar a acuerdo sobre criterios de racionamiento y sobre la implementación de estos en la práctica clínica.

[Model for a threshold of daily rate reduction of COVID-19 cases to avoid hospital collapse in Chile]. / Modelo de umbral de reducción de tasa diaria de casos COVID-19 para evitar el colapso hospitalario en Chile.

Using a mathematical model, we explore the problem of availability versus overdemand of critical hospital processes (e.g., critical beds) in the face of a steady epidemic expansion such as is occurring from the COVID-19 pandemic. In connection with the statistics of new cases per day, and the assumption of maximum quota, the dynamics associated with the variables number of hospitalized persons (critical occupants) and mortality in the system are explored. A parametric threshold condition is obtained, which involves a parameter associated with the minimum daily effort for not collapsing the system. To exemplify, we include some simulations for the case of Chile, based on a parameter of effort to be sustained with the purpose of lowering the daily infection rate.

Mediante un modelo matemático este trabajo explora la problemática de la disponibilidad versus sobredemanda de procesos críticos hospitalarias (por ejemplo, camas críticas) ante una fuerte expansión epidémica como la que está ocurriendo como consecuencia de la pandemia de COVID-19. En conexión con la estadística de nuevos casos diarios y el supuesto de cupo máximo, exploramos la dinámica asociada a las variables número de hospitalizados (ocupantes críticos) y mortalidad en el sistema. Obtenemos una condición paramétrica umbral que involucra un parámetro asociado al esfuerzo mínimo diario para el no colapso del sistema. En orden a ejemplificar, incluimos algunas simulaciones para el caso de Chile, en función de un parámetro de esfuerzo a sostener para bajar la tasa de infección diaria.

Rapid Implementation of an Adult Coronavirus Disease 2019 Unit in a Children's Hospital.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the rapid implementation of an adult coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) unit using pediatric physician and nurse providers in a children's hospital and to examine the characteristics and outcomes of the first 100 adult patients admitted. STUDY DESIGN: We describe our approach to surge-in-place at a children's hospital to meet the local demands of the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead of redeploying pediatric providers to work with internist-led teams throughout a medical center, pediatric physicians and nurses organized and staffed a 40-bed adult COVID-19 treatment unit within a children's hospital. We adapted internal medicine protocols, developed screening criteria to select appropriate patients for admission, and reorganized staffing and equipment to accommodate adult patients with COVID-19. We used patient counts and descriptive statistics to report sociodemographic, system, and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: The median patient age was 46 years; 69% were male. On admission, 78 (78%) required oxygen supplementation. During hospitalization, 13 (13%) eventually were intubated. Of the first 100 patients, 14 are still admitted to a medical unit, 6 are in the intensive care unit, 74 have been discharged, 4 died after transfer to the intensive care unit, and 2 died on the unit. The median length of stay for discharged or deceased patients was 4 days (IQR 2, 7). CONCLUSIONS: Our pediatric team screened, admitted, and cared for hospitalized adults by leveraging the familiarity of our system, adaptability of our staff, and high-quality infrastructure. This experience may be informative for other healthcare systems that will be redeploying pediatric providers and nurses to address a regional COVID-19 surge elsewhere.

How to Surge to Face the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak: Lessons Learned From Lombardy, Italy.

Italy is fighting against one of the worst medical emergency since the 1918 Spanish Flu. Pressure on the hospitals is tremendous. As for official data on March 14th: 8372 admitted in hospitals, 1518 in intensive care units, 1441 deaths (175 more than the day before). Unfortunately, hospitals are not prepared: even where a plan for massive influx of patients is present, it usually focuses on sudden onset disaster trauma victims (the most probable case scenario), and it has not been tested, validated, or propagated to the staff. Despite this, the All Hazards Approach for management of major incidents and disasters is still valid and the "4S" theory (staff, stuff, structure, systems) for surge capacity can be guidance to respond to this disaster.

Covid-19: implications for prehospital, emergency and hospital care in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

Hospitals play a critical role in providing communities with essential medical care during all types of disaster. Depending on their scope and nature, disasters can lead to a rapidly increasing service demand that can overwhelm the functional capacity and safety of hospitals and the healthcare system at large. Planning during the community outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is critical for maintaining healthcare services during our response. This paper describes, besides general measures in times of a pandemic, also the necessary changes in the invasive diagnosis and treatment of patients presenting with different entities of acute coronary syndromes including structural adaptations (networks, spokes and hub centres) and therapeutic adjustments.

The Surge After the Surge: Cardiac Surgery Post-COVID-19.

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically reduced adult cardiac surgery case volumes as institutions and surgeons curtail nonurgent operations. There will be a progressive increase in deferred cases during the pandemic that will require completion within a limited time frame once restrictions ease. We investigated the impact of various levels of increased postpandemic hospital operating capacity on the time to clear the backlog of deferred cases. Methods: We collected data from 4 cardiac surgery programs across 2 health systems. We recorded case rates at baseline and during the COVID-19 pandemic and created a mathematical model to quantify the cumulative surgical backlog based on the projected pandemic duration. We then used the model to predict the time required to clear the backlog depending on the level of increased operating capacity. Results: Cardiac surgery volumes fell to 54% of baseline after restrictions were implemented. Assuming a service restoration date of either June 1 or July 1, we calculated the need to perform 216% or 263% of monthly baseline volume, respectively, to clear the backlog in 1 month. The actual duration required to clear the backlog highly depends on hospital capacity in the post-COVID period, and ranges from 1 to 8 months, depending on when services are restored and the degree of increased capacity. Conclusions: Cardiac surgical operating capacity during the COVID-19 recovery period will have a dramatic impact on the time to clear the deferred cases backlog. Inadequate operating capacity may cause substantial delays and increase morbidity and mortality. If only prepandemic capacity is available, the backlog will never clear.

Hospital surge capacity in a tertiary emergency referral centre during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy.

The first person-to-person transmission of the 2019 novel coronavirus in Italy on 21 February 2020 led to an infection chain that represents one of the largest known COVID-19 outbreaks outside Asia. In northern Italy in particular, we rapidly experienced a critical care crisis due to a shortage of intensive care beds, as we expected according to data reported in China. Based on our experience of managing this surge, we produced this review to support other healthcare services in preparedness and training of hospitals during the current coronavirus outbreak. We had a dedicated task force that identified a response plan, which included: (1) establishment of dedicated, cohorted intensive care units for COVID-19-positive patients; (2) design of appropriate procedures for pre-triage, diagnosis and isolation of suspected and confirmed cases; and (3) training of all staff to work in the dedicated intensive care unit, in personal protective equipment usage and patient management. Hospital multidisciplinary and departmental collaboration was needed to work on all principles of surge capacity, including: space definition; supplies provision; staff recruitment; and ad hoc training. Dedicated protocols were applied where full isolation of spaces, staff and patients was implemented. Opening the unit and the whole hospital emergency process required the multidisciplinary, multi-level involvement of healthcare providers and hospital managers all working towards a common goal: patient care and hospital safety. Hospitals should be prepared to face severe disruptions to their routine and it is very likely that protocols and procedures might require re-discussion and updating on a daily basis.